The Claim

Reduced illegal border crossings to their lowest level since the 1970s, completely eradicating the Biden-era invasion.

The Claim, Unpacked

What is literally being asserted?

Two distinct assertions: (1) That illegal border crossings have been reduced to their lowest level since the 1970s; and (2) that this reduction “completely eradicates” what it calls the “Biden-era invasion.”

What is being implied but not asserted?

That the Trump administration is solely responsible for the decline. That border crossings were not already declining before January 20, 2025. That the Biden era constituted an “invasion” — a term with specific legal and military meaning that no court has accepted in the immigration context. That “completely eradicating” means the problem is solved — that crossings are at or near zero. That this is an unambiguous policy success with no trade-offs.

What is conspicuously absent?

Any acknowledgment that border crossings were already declining sharply before Trump took office — Biden’s June 2024 Secure the Border rule drove a 43% decline from June to December 2024. Any acknowledgment of Mexico’s substantial enforcement role. Any mention that CBP’s own data shows 72% of FY2025 apprehensions occurred in the Biden-administration portion of the fiscal year (October 2024 through January 20, 2025). Any distinction between “encounters” (the current metric) and “apprehensions” (the historical metric), which are not identical. Any discussion of got-away estimates, port-of-entry shifts, or whether reduced encounters mean reduced actual crossings.

Evidence Assessment

Established Facts

Border Patrol apprehensions in FY2025 were indeed the lowest since FY1970 — this part of the claim is essentially true. CBP recorded 237,565 Southwest Border apprehensions between ports of entry in FY2025 (October 2024 through September 2025). This is the lowest fiscal year total since FY1970, when 201,780 apprehensions were recorded. MPI independently confirmed this characterization, calling it a “55-year low.” Pew Research Center corroborated the finding in a February 2026 analysis, noting encounters “fell to their lowest level in more than 50 years.” [^006-a1]

The decline began well before Trump’s inauguration and accelerated under Biden’s June 2024 rule. Biden’s June 4, 2024 Presidential Proclamation on Securing the Border suspended most asylum processing when daily unauthorized crossings exceeded 2,500. DHS reported encounters at the Southwest Border fell more than 50% within six weeks. Credible fear interview referrals dropped 90%. Irregular crossings fell from approximately 84,000 in June 2024 to 47,000 in December 2024 — a 43% decline. By November 2024, more migrants were arriving at ports of entry than between them. December 2024 encounters were 81% below December 2023. [^006-a2]

CBP’s own FY2025 breakdown shows 72% of the year’s apprehensions occurred under Biden. Of FY2025’s 237,565 total Southwest Border apprehensions, 172,026 (72%) occurred during the first 111 days — the Biden administration period (October 1, 2024 through January 20, 2025). The remaining 65,539 (27%) occurred over the next 254 days under Trump. This means the FY2025 total was already on track to be historically low before inauguration day. [^006-a3]

Mexico’s enforcement substantially contributed to the decline. From January to August 2024, Mexican migration authorities intercepted more than 950,000 undocumented migrants — 132% more than the same period in 2023. In February 2025, President Sheinbaum deployed 10,000 additional National Guard troops to Mexico’s borders. Mexico employed a “carrusel” strategy of transporting detained migrants back to southern Mexico to discourage repeat attempts. The CRS documented Mexico’s enforcement as a significant independent variable in reduced crossings. [^006-a4]

“Invasion” is a political characterization, not a factual descriptor. Legal scholars across the ideological spectrum — including at the Brennan Center for Justice, George Mason University (Ilya Somin), and Just Security — have concluded that immigration does not constitute “invasion” under the Constitution or the Alien Enemies Act. Courts have uniformly rejected the immigration-as-invasion argument in cases dating back to the 1990s. The Alien Enemies Act defines invasion as requiring a military attack. [^006-a5]

Strong Inferences

The FY2025 low is real, but the comparison to the 1970s requires a methodological asterisk. Prior to March 2020, CBP tracked “apprehensions” only. Since March 2020, CBP uses “encounters,” which combine apprehensions with Title 42 expulsions (and, after Title 42 ended in May 2023, other enforcement actions). Pew Research flagged this methodological change explicitly. While the difference may be modest in the current enforcement environment (since Title 42 is no longer in effect), the categories are not perfectly comparable. DHS itself describes FY2025 as the lowest for “apprehensions” since 1970 — implicitly acknowledging the metric comparison. [^006-a6]

The post-inauguration decline deepened but did not create the downward trend. Monthly Border Patrol apprehensions fell from approximately 8,400 in September 2025 to under 10,000 consistently from February 2025 onward. The Trump administration’s policies — including the border emergency declaration, remain-in-Mexico reinstatement, and zero-release policy — clearly accelerated the decline. But the trend line was already sharply downward. Attribution to a single administration is an oversimplification when multiple factors (Biden’s June 2024 rule, Mexican enforcement, seasonal patterns, deterrence effects of the incoming administration’s rhetoric, and economic conditions in origin countries) are all operating simultaneously. [^006-a7]

“Completely eradicating” is demonstrably false — crossings continue at reduced but nonzero levels. In January 2026, Border Patrol apprehended 6,070 people at the Southwest Border — 196 per day. This is dramatically lower than prior years but nowhere near zero. The word “eradicating” implies elimination. By the administration’s own data, approximately 7,000 unauthorized crossings per month continued through 2025, and FY2026 early months show similar levels. [^006-a8]

The historical data shows the 1970s were not a low-crossing era — they were an era of rapid escalation. CBP data shows apprehensions rose from 201,780 in FY1970 to 795,798 in FY1979 — nearly quadrupling over the decade. By FY1986, apprehensions hit 1.6 million. Saying crossings are “at their lowest level since the 1970s” technically means they are lower than any point since FY1970 — but it implies the 1970s were a baseline of low crossing, when in reality they were the beginning of a major surge. The framing is accurate but misleading in its implication. [^006-a9]

Informed Speculation

The claim’s construction — coupling a largely defensible statistical claim with inflammatory language (“completely eradicating,” “invasion”) — suggests a deliberate rhetorical strategy. The border numbers are strong enough to stand on their own: a 55-year low is genuinely historic, regardless of attribution. But the addition of “completely eradicating the Biden-era invasion” transforms a factual observation into a political narrative that (a) erases Biden’s contribution to the decline, (b) characterizes the prior era in dehumanizing military terms no court accepts, and (c) implies a completeness (“eradicating”) that the data does not support.

The got-away question remains unresolved. Got-aways — people who cross without being apprehended — declined 60% from FY2023 to FY2024, but FY2025 got-away data has not been publicly released in detail. Lower apprehensions could reflect fewer crossings, more effective deterrence, or a shift to less detectable crossing methods. Without got-away data, the encounter figures tell an incomplete story.

Structural Analysis

The attribution problem: This is the central analytical challenge. The decline in border crossings was a multi-causal event. Biden’s June 2024 rule, Mexico’s enforcement surge, the deterrence effect of a new administration’s rhetoric, seasonal patterns, and economic conditions in origin countries all contributed. The claim attributes the entire outcome to the Trump administration. CBP’s own data — showing 72% of FY2025 apprehensions in the Biden portion — directly undercuts this.

Stated vs. revealed preferences: The claim states it “reduced” crossings. The revealed timeline shows the reduction was already underway. The Trump administration deepened it — that is real and documented. But “reduced… to their lowest level” implies the administration took them from a high point to a low point, when in fact it inherited a sharply declining trend.

The denominator problem: “Lowest since the 1970s” sounds like a return to a peaceful baseline. In reality, FY1970’s 201,780 apprehensions represented a border with a fraction of today’s enforcement resources, technology, and personnel. The Border Patrol in 1970 had roughly 1,600 agents; today it has over 19,000. Comparing raw numbers across 55 years, without adjusting for enforcement capacity, population growth, or economic conditions, provides a headline without context.

Announcement vs. outcome: The claim says crossings have been “completely eradicated.” CBP’s own January 2026 data shows 6,070 Southwest Border apprehensions that month. Crossings are dramatically reduced but not eradicated.

Context the Framing Omits

The decline started under Biden. The June 2024 Secure the Border rule drove irregular crossings down 43% (June-December 2024). December 2024 encounters were 81% below December 2023. By November 2024, more migrants arrived at ports of entry than between them. This context is entirely absent from the claim.

Mexico did a significant share of the work. Mexican authorities intercepted over 950,000 migrants in the first eight months of 2024 alone — 132% more than the same period in 2023. Mexico’s “carrusel” strategy and National Guard deployments were independent policy decisions, not U.S. operations.

The counting methodology changed in 2020. Comparing FY2025 “encounters” to pre-2020 “apprehensions” involves a methodological mismatch. While the practical difference may be modest post-Title 42, it means the “since the 1970s” comparison is not perfectly apples-to-apples.

Crossings are not zero. In early FY2026, approximately 6,000-10,000 unauthorized crossings per month continue at the Southwest Border. The word “eradicating” is false on its face.

Historical apprehension data does not mean what the claim implies. In the 1970s, Border Patrol apprehensions reflected a dramatically different enforcement landscape — fewer agents, less technology, different migration patterns. An apprehension in 1970 and an encounter in 2025 are not measuring the same thing under the same conditions.

Got-away estimates are missing. Without published FY2025 got-away data, we cannot know whether reduced encounters mean reduced actual crossings or a shift to undetected crossing methods.

Verdict

Factual core: Half true. The statistical claim — that Border Patrol encounters/apprehensions in FY2025 hit a 55-year low — is supported by CBP data, confirmed by MPI, and corroborated by Pew Research. This is real and significant. However, the claim that the Trump administration “reduced” crossings to this level omits that the decline began under Biden’s June 2024 rule, that 72% of FY2025’s (already low) apprehensions occurred before inauguration, and that Mexico’s enforcement was a major independent factor. The claim that crossings were “completely eradicated” is false — approximately 6,000-10,000 per month continued. The “invasion” characterization is political rhetoric rejected by courts and legal scholars.

Framing as “win”: Misleading. The border numbers are genuinely historic lows — that deserves acknowledgment. But the framing erases the Biden administration’s contribution, Mexico’s role, and the multi-causal nature of the decline. It uses inflammatory language (“invasion,” “eradicating”) that overstates both the prior problem and the current solution. The most accurate statement would be: “Border crossings continued their sharp decline in 2025, reaching levels not seen in over 50 years, driven by a combination of Biden-era rules, Mexican enforcement, and Trump administration policies.”

What a reader should understand: Border Patrol apprehensions in FY2025 did hit a 55-year low of approximately 238,000 — that is a real, verified fact. But the decline was a multi-administration, multi-country achievement: Biden’s June 2024 rule started the sharp drop, Mexico’s enforcement intensified it, and the Trump administration’s policies deepened it further. Attributing the entire result to one administration is inaccurate. The claim’s language — “completely eradicating the Biden-era invasion” — compounds the attribution problem with inflammatory rhetoric and a factual falsehood: crossings were not eradicated, and no court accepts “invasion” as a legal description of immigration.

Cross-References

• Item #1: “Negative net migration” — shares the border data; the 238K encounter figure appears in both claims
• Item #2: “2.6 million removals” — related enforcement narrative; deportation operations coincide with border decline
• Item #3: “650,000 arrests, detentions, and deportations” — enforcement scale claims that complement this border claim
• Item #4: “400,000 criminal aliens” — subset of enforcement that the administration links to border security
• Item #5: “Two million self-deportations” — deterrence narrative claims the border decline as evidence of self-deportation
• Item #7: “Cut fentanyl trafficking by 56%” — related Southwest Border claim; same geographic context
• Item #8: “Ended catch-and-release” — the zero-release policy is part of the same enforcement posture driving the border numbers

Sources

U.S. Customs and Border Protection. “Lowest Fiscal Year for Border Patrol Apprehensions Since 1970.” October 7, 2025. https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/national-media-release/lowest-fiscal-year-border-patrol-apprehensions-1970

U.S. Customs and Border Protection. “One Year of the Most Secure Border in History.” January 20, 2026. https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/national-media-release/one-year-most-secure-border-history

U.S. Customs and Border Protection. “U.S. Border Patrol Fiscal Year Southwest Border Sector Apprehensions (FY 1960 - FY 2019).” January 29, 2020. https://www.cbp.gov/document/stats/us-border-patrol-fiscal-year-southwest-border-sector-apprehensions-fy-1960-fy-2019

DHS. “FACT SHEET: President Biden’s Presidential Proclamation and Joint DHS-DOJ Interim Final Rule Cut Encounters at Southwest Border by Over 50 Percent in Six Weeks.” July 16, 2024. https://www.dhs.gov/archive/news/2024/07/16/fact-sheet-president-bidens-presidential-proclamation-and-joint-dhs-doj-interim

DHS. “DHS Delivers Historic Start to Border Crossings for FY 2026.” November 5, 2025. https://www.dhs.gov/news/2025/11/05/dhs-delivers-historic-start-border-crossings-fy-2026

House Committee on Homeland Security. “BORDER BRIEF: FY25 Southwest Border Apprehensions Hit Lowest Level in Half a Century.” November 13, 2025. https://homeland.house.gov/2025/11/13/border-brief-fy25-southwest-border-apprehensions-hit-lowest-level-in-half-a-century-as-law-enforcement-faces-threats/

Migration Policy Institute. “A New Era of Immigration Enforcement Unfolds in the U.S. Interior and at the Border under Trump 2.0.” October 2025. https://www.migrationpolicy.org/news/new-era-enforcement-trump-2

Dallas Federal Reserve. “New Data Show Intensifying Unauthorized Immigration Decline.” January 13, 2026. https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2026/0113

Pew Research Center. “Migrant Encounters at US-Mexico Border at Lowest Level in Over 50 Years.” February 2, 2026. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/02/02/migrant-encounters-at-the-us-mexico-border-are-at-their-lowest-level-in-more-than-50-years/

Just Security. “Immigration Is Not an ‘Invasion’ under the Constitution.” 2023. https://www.justsecurity.org/91543/immigration-is-not-an-invasion-under-the-constitution/

Brennan Center for Justice. “Trump’s Doubly Flawed ‘Invasion’ Theory.” 2023. https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/trumps-doubly-flawed-invasion-theory

Congressional Research Service. “Mexico’s Migration Control Efforts.” Updated 2025. https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF10215

Johnston’s Archive. “U.S. Border Immigration Enforcement Statistics by Fiscal Year.” Accessed March 17, 2026. https://www.johnstonsarchive.net/policy/border_appreh_stats_yearly.html