The Claim

Conducted targeted enforcement operations in Chicago, resulting in the city’s fewest murders since 1965 and shootings falling by more than a third.

The Claim, Unpacked

What is literally being asserted?

Three components: (1) The administration conducted “targeted enforcement operations” in Chicago, (2) these operations “resulted in” the city’s fewest murders since 1965, and (3) shootings fell by more than a third. The word “resulting” establishes a causal claim — these operations caused the crime decline.

What is being implied but not asserted?

That federal enforcement was the decisive factor in Chicago’s historic crime drop. That without the administration’s intervention, Chicago would not have achieved these results. That immigration enforcement operations reduce violent crime. That the administration deserves credit for a transformation in public safety in a city long associated with gun violence.

What is conspicuously absent?

Any acknowledgment that Chicago’s crime had been declining for four consecutive years before these federal operations began. Any mention that homicides were already down 29% in the January-August period before Operation Midway Blitz launched on September 8, 2025. Any recognition that the decline is part of a national trend affecting virtually all major U.S. cities — Denver dropped 41%, Washington D.C. dropped 40%, and the national homicide rate fell 21% in 2025. Any mention of the City of Chicago’s $248 million investment in Community Violence Intervention programs since 2022. Any credit to the Chicago Police Department, whose homicide clearance rate hit a 13-year high of 71.2% in 2025. Any reference to Mayor Brandon Johnson’s administration, Police Superintendent Larry Snelling, or the community organizations that do violence interruption work in the neighborhoods where the decline was concentrated. Any acknowledgment that the University of Chicago Crime Lab — the leading independent authority on Chicago crime — explicitly states “it’s not entirely clear what’s driving the decline.” Any mention that the same administration diverted 80% of ATF agents from gun crime to immigration enforcement, actually reducing federal crime-fighting capacity in Chicago.

Evidence Assessment

Established Facts

Chicago recorded 416 murders in 2025, the fewest since 1965 (when there were 395). This is confirmed by CPD preliminary data, CBS News, ABC7 Chicago, WBEZ, the University of Chicago Crime Lab, and NORC at the University of Chicago. The 416 figure represents a 29% decrease from 587 in 2024. This is genuinely the lowest annual murder total in approximately 60 years. The claim’s statistic is accurate. ¹

Shootings declined by approximately one-third in 2025. There were 1,847 shooting victims in 2025 compared to 2,797 in 2024, a 34% decrease. Shooting incidents fell from 2,274 to 1,471, a 35% decline. For the first time this century, Chicago experienced fewer than 2,000 shootings. The “more than a third” claim is accurate for shooting incidents (35%), and essentially accurate for shooting victims (34%). ²

The administration did conduct targeted enforcement operations in Chicago, principally Operation Midway Blitz. DHS launched Operation Midway Blitz on September 8, 2025, an ICE-led immigration enforcement operation targeting Chicago and Illinois. The operation resulted in approximately 1,600 arrests by October 2025. DHS claimed the operation caused crime reductions in homicides (16%), shootings (35%), robberies (41%), carjackings (48%), and transit crime (20%). ³

Chicago’s crime decline preceded the federal operations and was part of a four-year trend. Homicides had been falling consecutively since the 2021 peak of 805: approximately 715 in 2022, 621 in 2023, 587 in 2024, and 416 in 2025. Between January 1 and August 31, 2025 — before Operation Midway Blitz launched — homicides were already down 29% (285 vs. 402), shootings were down approximately 36%, robberies down 32%, and carjackings down 49%. The pre-operation decline rates were comparable to or exceeded the post-operation rates DHS claimed credit for. ⁴

The 2025 homicide decline is part of a national phenomenon, not unique to Chicago. The Council on Criminal Justice documented a 21% national homicide decline across 35 major cities, with 31 of 35 experiencing decreases. Denver fell 41%, Washington D.C. 40%, Omaha 40%, Richmond 59%, Los Angeles 39%. The CCJ explicitly stated: “Without rigorous evidence, it is not possible to confidently pinpoint the factors fueling the drop in homicide.” The projected 2025 national homicide rate of approximately 4.0 per 100,000 would be the lowest ever recorded. ⁵

The University of Chicago Crime Lab does not attribute the decline to federal enforcement. The Crime Lab’s end-of-year analysis noted: “It’s not entirely clear what’s driving the decline” and “Crime trends change at the same time that other things are changing in the world.” The Crime Lab cited potential factors including post-pandemic normalization, CVI programs, and CPD-community collaboration — not federal immigration enforcement. ⁶

Strong Inferences

The “resulting in” causal language is not supported by the evidence. The crime decline began years before Operation Midway Blitz. The January-August 2025 data — before any federal operations — shows crime declining at the same or faster rate as the post-September period DHS claimed credit for. Homicides were down 29% in January-August vs. a 16% additional decline DHS claimed after September. No independent researcher, academic institution, or local law enforcement official has attributed the decline to federal immigration enforcement. The temporal pattern directly contradicts causation: the effect preceded the purported cause. ⁷

City-level investments in violence prevention are a more plausible contributing factor than federal immigration enforcement. The Government Alliance for Safe Communities has invested $248 million in Community Violence Intervention since 2022, serving over 27,000 people. A 2026 GASC impact report found that “Chicago Community Areas with the highest average level of public investment in CVI showed the largest public safety gains.” University of Chicago evaluations found that the Becoming a Man program reduces violent crime arrests by nearly 50%, and READI Chicago returns $4-$20 in social good per dollar spent. Seven community areas where CVI was concentrated accounted for 35% of the citywide decline. The CPD’s homicide clearance rate of 71.2% — a 13-year high — suggests improved investigative effectiveness as a contributing factor. ⁸

The administration’s own policies likely reduced federal crime-fighting capacity in Chicago. The Marshall Project and TRAC documented that 80% of ATF agents were reassigned from gun crime to immigration enforcement. FBI had 23% of agents diverted; DEA had approximately 75%. Federal gun crime charges dropped 32% nationally. Federal drug crime charges hit their lowest level since the late 1990s. The ATF budget was proposed for a 29% cut. Far from enhancing crime-fighting in Chicago, the administration pulled federal agents away from the gun trafficking and drug cases that drive urban violence. ⁹

This claim is part of a city-specific enforcement cluster (Items #58-61) using the same template. The “365 wins” list includes similar claims about Washington D.C. (Item #58), Memphis (Item #59), and Chicago (Item #60), each attributing local crime declines to federal enforcement operations. The template is identical: claim targeted operations, cite real crime statistics, assert causation. All three cities were experiencing crime declines as part of the national trend, and all three had significant local crime-fighting investments predating federal intervention. This is a padding strategy: one national crime trend generates multiple city-specific “wins.” ¹⁰

Informed Speculation

The political logic of claiming credit for Chicago’s crime decline is particularly revealing. Throughout 2025, the administration deployed rhetoric about Chicago as a crime-ridden, Democrat-run city needing federal rescue. Trump called for deploying the National Guard. DHS launched Operation Midway Blitz with pointed political framing — the press release title named both Governor Pritzker and Mayor Johnson, Democratic officials, implying they had failed. When crime dropped — as it was already doing before federal agents arrived — DHS claimed the credit in a press release. This follows the playbook documented in Item #45: brand an operation with a media-friendly name, wait for pre-existing trends to continue, then issue a press release claiming the trend as your achievement.

The irony is that the administration’s actual policy choices — diverting ATF, FBI, and DEA resources from gun and drug enforcement to immigration enforcement — likely made the federal government less effective at combating the gun violence that drives Chicago’s homicide numbers. The decline happened despite the erosion of federal crime-fighting capacity, not because of the federal operations the claim credits.

Structural Analysis

Cui bono from the framing: The administration benefits from associating itself with a genuinely historic crime decline in a city it had spent a year vilifying. By claiming credit, it reinforces two narratives simultaneously: (1) federal enforcement works, and (2) Democratic city leadership cannot manage crime without Republican intervention. Chicago’s actual crime-fighting apparatus — CPD, CVI organizations, community groups — is erased from the story.

Stated vs. revealed preferences: The stated preference is reducing violent crime in Chicago. The revealed preference is visible in the resource allocation: 80% of ATF agents pulled from gun cases, 32% drop in federal gun prosecutions, proposed ATF budget cuts of 29%. If reducing gun violence in Chicago were the priority, the administration would be increasing ATF resources, not gutting them. The actual “targeted enforcement operations” in Chicago were immigration enforcement (Operation Midway Blitz), not anti-violence operations.

The attribution problem: This is a textbook case. A real outcome (crime decline) is attributed to one factor (federal operations) while the actual causal web is complex and dominated by other factors (four-year trend, national phenomenon, $248M in CVI investment, improved CPD effectiveness, post-pandemic normalization). The strongest evidence against the causal claim is temporal: crime was declining at the same rate before the federal operation began.

The padding lens: Item #60 is part of a cluster (Items #58-61) that takes one national crime decline trend and slices it into city-specific “wins.” A single national phenomenon — homicides falling 21% across 35 major cities — generates at least three separate entries in the “365 wins” list. Additionally, Operation Midway Blitz is already counted in Item #45 (sanctuary city enforcement operations). The same operation is being credited twice: once as an immigration enforcement achievement and once as a crime-fighting achievement.

Context the Framing Omits

Chicago’s crime had been declining for four consecutive years before any federal intervention. From the 2021 peak of 805 homicides, the trajectory was: ~715 (2022), 621 (2023), 587 (2024), 416 (2025). The decline accelerated through 2024-2025, but the trend was well established before Operation Midway Blitz. In the first eight months of 2025 — covering the summer months when violence traditionally peaks — homicides were already down 29% year-over-year.

This was a national phenomenon, not a Chicago-specific response to federal intervention. Homicides fell 21% nationally across 35 major cities. Denver, Washington D.C., Omaha, Richmond, and Los Angeles all saw comparable or larger declines. The Council on Criminal Justice projects the 2025 national homicide rate may be the lowest ever recorded. None of these other cities’ declines are attributed to federal immigration enforcement operations.

Chicago invested heavily in violence prevention through CVI programs. Since 2022, $248 million in Community Violence Intervention funding has been deployed through the Government Alliance for Safe Communities, serving 27,000+ people. CVI programs deploy street outreach workers in high-violence neighborhoods for conflict deescalation. Seven community areas where CVI was concentrated accounted for 35% of the citywide decline. This represents a sustained, evidence-based intervention strategy with demonstrated results.

The CPD itself became more effective. Under Superintendent Larry Snelling, CPD’s homicide clearance rate reached 71.2% in 2025 — a 13-year high, up from 56% in 2024. Higher clearance rates create deterrent effects: potential offenders know they are more likely to be caught. Snelling credited “partnerships, everyone working together” and “top-down leadership, intelligence-driven policing.”

The administration actually reduced federal crime-fighting capacity in Chicago. By diverting 80% of ATF agents, 23% of FBI agents, and 75% of DEA agents to immigration work, the administration diminished precisely the federal resources — gun trafficking investigations, drug interdiction, gang intelligence — that have historically contributed to urban crime reduction. Federal gun crime charges dropped 32%. Mayor Johnson publicly criticized Trump for “cutting $468 million from ATF, allowing influx of illegal guns.”

Operation Midway Blitz was an immigration enforcement operation, not an anti-violence operation. The 1,600+ people arrested in Operation Midway Blitz were arrested on immigration charges, not for violent crimes. Over 60% had no criminal charge or conviction. The operation targeted people based on immigration status, not involvement in gun violence. There is no mechanism by which arresting immigrants — the overwhelming majority of whom were not involved in violent crime — reduces the gun violence between Chicago residents that drives the homicide count.

Verdict

Factual core: Mostly true. The statistics are real: Chicago did record its fewest murders since 1965, and shootings did fall by more than a third. The administration did conduct enforcement operations in Chicago. All three component facts check out.

Framing as “win”: Misleading. The word “resulting in” is the load-bearing deception. It converts correlation into causation. The crime decline preceded the federal operations, is part of a national trend, and is more plausibly attributed to local investments, improved policing, and post-pandemic normalization. No independent researcher supports the causal claim.

What a reader should understand: Chicago’s 2025 crime numbers are genuinely historic and worth celebrating. The city recorded 416 murders — the fewest since 1965 — and shootings fell by a third. But this decline was well underway before the administration’s Operation Midway Blitz launched in September 2025; homicides were already down 29% in the January-August period. The decline is part of a national trend (21% across 35 cities) driven by factors researchers are still untangling — post-pandemic normalization, community violence intervention investments ($248 million since 2022), improved CPD clearance rates (71.2%, a 13-year high), and broader societal shifts. The administration’s own policies — diverting 80% of ATF agents from gun crime to immigration enforcement — actually reduced federal crime-fighting capacity. Claiming the pre-existing, multi-year, nationwide crime decline as a “result” of immigration enforcement operations is misattribution of a real achievement to the wrong cause.

Cross-References

• Item #45 — Sanctuary city enforcement operations: Operation Midway Blitz first analyzed as immigration enforcement, now re-counted as a crime-fighting achievement. Same operation, two “wins.”
• Item #53 — National crime decline claim: the broader framing of the national trend as a presidential achievement.
• Item #54 — Violent crime reduction claim: overlapping national statistics.
• Item #58 — Washington D.C. crime claim: same template (city-specific crime decline attributed to federal operations).
• Item #59 — Memphis crime claim: same template (city-specific crime decline attributed to federal operations).

Sources

Footnotes

1. CBS News Chicago, “Chicago sees 30% drop in homicides in 2025, with fewest murders in a year since 1965,” January 2, 2026. https://www.cbsnews.com/chicago/news/chicago-murders-violent-crime-drops-2025/; ABC7 Chicago, “In 2025, Chicago had fewest murders recorded since 1960s,” January 2, 2026. https://abc7chicago.com/post/2025-chicago-had-fewest-murders-recorded-1960s-violent-crime-down-preliminary-cpd-data/18338816/ ↩

2. ABC7 Chicago, January 2, 2026. Shooting incidents: 2,274 (2024) to 1,471 (2025), 35% decline. Shooting victims: 2,797 (2024) to 1,847 (2025), 34% decline. https://abc7chicago.com/post/2025-chicago-had-fewest-murders-recorded-1960s-violent-crime-down-preliminary-cpd-data/18338816/ ↩

3. DHS, “Operation Midway Blitz Brings Historic Drop in Crime,” November 12, 2025. https://www.dhs.gov/news/2025/11/12/operation-midway-blitz-brings-historic-drop-crime-jb-pritzker-and-brandon-johnsons; DHS, “Secretary Noem Travels to Chicago as Operation Midway Blitz Reaches More Than 1,000 Illegal Aliens Arrested,” October 3, 2025. https://www.dhs.gov/news/2025/10/03/secretary-noem-travels-chicago-operation-midway-blitz-reaches-more-1000-illegal ↩

4. Fox 32 Chicago, “DHS says Chicago’s violent crime is down due to Operation Midway Blitz — it was already declining,” November 14, 2025. https://www.fox32chicago.com/news/dhs-chicago-violent-crime-data; City of Chicago, “Chicago Leads The Nation In Violent Crime Reduction,” November 13, 2025. https://www.chicago.gov/city/en/depts/mayor/press_room/press_releases/2025/november/chicago-leads-violent-crime-reduction.html ↩

5. Council on Criminal Justice, “Crime Trends in U.S. Cities: Year-End 2025 Update,” February 11, 2026. https://counciloncj.org/crime-trends-in-u-s-cities-year-end-2025-update/ ↩

6. University of Chicago Crime Lab, “2025 End-of-Year Analysis: Chicago Crime Trends,” December 2025. https://crimelab.uchicago.edu/resources/2025-end-of-year-analysis-chicago-crime-trends/ ↩

7. Fox 32 Chicago, November 14, 2025; City of Chicago, November 13, 2025; University of Chicago Crime Lab, December 2025. ↩

8. Cook County / GASC, “Public Investments in Community Violence Intervention Contributed to Public Safety Gains,” February 2026. https://www.cookcountyil.gov/news/public-investments-community-violence-intervention-contributed-public-safety-gains-new-report; NORC / University of Chicago, “2025 Chicago Crime Statistics Year in Review,” January 2026. https://www.chipublicsafety.org/crime/updates-insights/2025-chicago-crime-statistics-year-in-review.html ↩

9. The Marshall Project, “How Trump’s Immigration Focus Hinders Federal Crime Fighting,” October 4, 2025. https://www.themarshallproject.org/2025/10/04/federal-government-trump-ice-crime ↩

10. White House, “365 Wins in 365 Days,” January 20, 2026. Items #58 (D.C.), #59 (Memphis), #60 (Chicago). https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2026/01/365-wins-in-365-days-president-trumps-return-marks-new-era-of-success-prosperity/ ↩