The Claim

Drove gas prices to their lowest level in nearly five years, with prices below $3 per gallon in 43 states and below $2 per gallon in 19 states.

The Claim, Unpacked

What is literally being asserted?

Three things: (1) the administration “drove” gas prices to their lowest level in nearly five years, (2) gas was below $3 per gallon in 43 states, and (3) gas was below $2 per gallon in 19 states. The word “drove” is a causal claim — the administration caused the decline.

What is being implied but not asserted?

That presidential energy policy is the primary determinant of gas prices. That the price decline is a deliberate achievement of this administration. That the prior administration’s policies caused high prices. That “energy dominance” rhetoric translates into price outcomes consumers can feel.

What is conspicuously absent?

Any mention that gas prices are determined primarily by global crude oil markets, not presidential policy — a point virtually all economists agree on. Any mention that the global crude oil price decline was driven by OPEC+ production increases, record non-OPEC production (Brazil, Guyana, Canada), and weak global demand growth. Any mention that US crude oil production reached 13.6 million barrels per day in July 2025 — a record — continuing an upward trend that began under Biden and Obama. Any mention that gas prices had already been declining through the second half of 2024, before this administration took office. Any mention that the White House’s own December 2025 article reported gas below $2 in only “at least four states” — not 19 — just six weeks before this list claimed 19. Any mention that “nearly five years” means “since the COVID-19 demand collapse in early 2021,” when prices were artificially depressed by a global pandemic that shut down transportation worldwide.

Evidence Assessment

Established Facts

The national average gas price reached approximately $2.81 per gallon in early January 2026, the lowest since March 2021. AAA reported the national average at $2.81 to start the year, calling it “the lowest since 2021.” EIA weekly retail data confirms the downward trajectory. GasBuddy projected a full-year 2026 average of $2.97 — the lowest annual average since 2020 ($2.17). The “nearly five years” characterization is approximately accurate if measured from early 2021. [^068-a1]

Gas prices were below $3 per gallon in approximately 37-43 states around January 2026. The White House’s own December 9, 2025 article reported 37 states below $3. By mid-January 2026, the continued decline likely pushed this to the low 40s. The “43 states” figure is plausible, though the precise count depends on the specific date referenced. [^068-a2]

The claim that 19 states had gas below $2 per gallon is not supported by available data. AAA state-level data shows no state averaged below $2 per gallon in January 2026. The cheapest state average was Oklahoma at approximately $2.24. The White House’s own December 2025 article reported gas below $2 at individual stations in “at least four states” — not 19 state averages. GasBuddy data showed 22 states below $2.75 and 5 states below $2.50 — but zero state averages below $2.00. The figure of 19 appears to conflate individual station prices with state averages, or is simply fabricated. [^068-a3]

The gas price decline was driven by global crude oil market dynamics, not US energy policy. EIA’s February 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook attributed the decline to global production exceeding consumption, with implied stock builds of more than 2.5 million barrels per day in late 2025. Brent crude fell from approximately $80/barrel in early 2025 to $69 average for 2025, with EIA projecting $58 for 2026. The IEA’s December 2025 Oil Market Report documented OPEC+ production increases, record output from Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina, and global demand growth of only 700,000-860,000 barrels per day — well below historical rates. [^068-a4]

US crude oil production reached record highs continuing a pre-existing trend. EIA data shows US crude production hit 13.6 million barrels per day in July 2025 — a record. However, production had already been at or near record levels throughout 2023-2024 under Biden, reaching 13.2 million bpd in late 2023. The upward trend in US production spans multiple administrations and is driven primarily by private-sector decisions in the Permian Basin, not federal policy changes. [^068-a5]

Strong Inferences

Presidents have minimal influence over gasoline prices. The EIA, UC Berkeley’s Energy Institute (Severin Borenstein), FactCheck.org, PolitiFact, and the National Association of Convenience Stores have all published analyses concluding that presidential policy has marginal impact on gas prices. More than half of the retail cost of gasoline is determined by crude oil prices, which are set on global markets based on worldwide supply and demand. As NPR reported: “The movement of gas prices doesn’t correlate with who’s in office; it’s determined by the balance of supply and demand, and influenced by the health of the economy and OPEC policies.” [^068-a6]

Gas prices were already declining before this administration took office. EIA weekly retail data shows the national average falling from $3.60 in April 2024 to $3.01 by late December 2024 — a $0.59 decline under Biden. The trajectory continued without inflection through the inauguration. The claim “drove” implies a causal intervention that altered the price trajectory; no such intervention is documented. [^068-a7]

The tariff policies of this administration likely increased, not decreased, energy costs for consumers. The 10% tariff on Chinese imports (Item #47, later escalated to 60%+) raised costs for solar panels, electric vehicles, and energy infrastructure. While crude oil was largely exempt from tariffs, diesel fuel imports from Canada were subject to tariffs before the IEEPA ruling. More broadly, tariffs increase transportation and manufacturing costs throughout the supply chain, creating upward pressure on consumer prices including gasoline distribution costs. [^068-a8]

What the Evidence Shows

The gas price decline is real. American consumers were genuinely paying less at the pump in January 2026 than at any point since early 2021. The “nearly five years” framing and the “43 states below $3” figure are approximately accurate. This is good news for consumers regardless of the cause.

But the word “drove” is doing heavy lifting the evidence cannot support. The decline was caused by a global oil glut — OPEC+ production increases, record output from non-OPEC producers, and anemic global demand growth — not by any identifiable domestic energy policy. The same decline was experienced by consumers worldwide, not just in the United States.

The “19 states below $2” claim is the most problematic element. The White House’s own article six weeks earlier reported only four states with individual stations below $2 — not 19 state averages. No state averaged below $2 in January 2026 according to AAA. This figure appears to be inflated by a factor of nearly five.

The Bottom Line

The gas price decline is real; the attribution and the $2 figure are not. Consumers benefited from lower prices driven by global oil market dynamics — oversupply from OPEC+, record production from the Americas, and sluggish global demand. This had approximately as much to do with presidential policy as the weather. The “19 states below $2” claim contradicts the White House’s own data from six weeks earlier and is not supported by any independent source. When a claim inflates its own government’s numbers by nearly 5x, the intent is not to inform but to impress.