The Claim

Delivered a historic stock-market rebound, with the major stock indices all hitting repeated new record highs.

The Claim, Unpacked

What is literally being asserted?

Three factual components: (1) the stock market experienced a “rebound,” (2) this rebound was “historic,” and (3) all major indices (S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite) hit repeated new record highs. Plus a causal claim embedded in “delivered” — that the Trump administration produced this outcome.

What is being implied but not asserted?

That the economy was in a weak or damaged state when Trump took office and he engineered a recovery. That stock market performance reflects broad economic health. That presidential policies drove the market gains. That this benefits working Americans — the section header under which this claim appears. The word “rebound” specifically implies recovery from a decline, suggesting the market was down and Trump brought it back.

What is conspicuously absent?

Any acknowledgment that the S&P 500 was already at all-time highs when Trump took office (5,997 on January 17, 2025). Any mention that the “rebound” was recovery from a crash caused by the administration’s own “Liberation Day” tariff announcement on April 2, 2025, which wiped $5+ trillion from U.S. market value in two days — the largest two-day loss in history. Any acknowledgment that 2025’s S&P 500 return of +16.4% was the weakest first-year presidential market performance since George W. Bush’s second term in 2005, and substantially below the 24.1% gain in Trump’s own first year (2017). Any mention that international markets dramatically outperformed U.S. markets in 2025 — the MSCI All Country World ex-USA gained 29.2%, nearly double the S&P 500’s return — suggesting the drivers were global, not presidential. Any discussion of who benefits from stock market gains: the top 10% of households own approximately 93% of stock market wealth, making this an odd centerpiece for a section about “working Americans.” Any mention of the Federal Reserve’s 100 basis points of rate cuts in late 2024 and 75 basis points in 2025 as the primary policy mechanism supporting equity valuations.

Evidence Assessment

Established Facts

All three major indices did hit multiple new record closing highs in 2025. The S&P 500 set 38 new all-time closing highs in 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Average set multiple records including crossing the 48,000 milestone for the first time, and the Nasdaq Composite hit new record highs beginning in late June. This part of the claim is factually accurate. However, 2024 saw 57 S&P 500 record closes — 50% more than 2025 — and 2021 saw 70. By this measure, 2025 was a good but unremarkable year. ¹

The S&P 500 returned +16.4% in 2025, the Dow +13%, and the Nasdaq +20.4%. All three major indices posted double-digit annual gains for the third consecutive year, following gains of 24-25% in 2023 and 23-25% in 2024. This was a solid year by historical standards, but the weakest of the three-year streak by a significant margin. The S&P 500’s total return (including dividends) was approximately 17.9%. ²

Markets were already at all-time highs when Trump took office — there was no decline to “rebound” from. The S&P 500 closed at 5,996.66 on January 17, 2025, the last trading day before inauguration. Markets continued rising to a new high of 6,144.15 on February 19. The word “rebound” is factually misleading: there was no pre-inauguration decline from which to recover. Markets were at historic peaks, reflecting two consecutive years of 24-25% gains under Biden. ³

The April 2025 tariff crash was caused by the administration’s own policy. On April 2, 2025 — “Liberation Day” — Trump announced sweeping tariffs including 34% on China, 20% on the EU, and 24% on Japan. The S&P 500 fell approximately 19% from its February 19 peak to its April 8 trough (~4,983), approaching bear market territory. More than $5 trillion in U.S. market value was wiped out in two trading sessions — the largest two-day loss in history. The crash reversed only after Trump announced a 90-day tariff pause on April 9. ⁴

The “rebound” was recovery from this self-inflicted crash. The S&P 500 surged approximately 23% from its April 8 low to reach a new all-time high of ~6,173 on June 27, 2025. CBS News described this as “damage recovery rather than organic growth — a correction from an externally-triggered crash caused by tariff policy uncertainty.” The administration’s own tariff policy caused the crash; the subsequent “rebound” was markets returning to approximately where they were before the policy shock. ⁵

Trump’s inauguration-to-inauguration market performance was the weakest for a presidential first year since 2005. The S&P 500 gained 13.3% from January 17, 2025 to January 20, 2026. For comparison, Trump’s own first term saw a 24.1% gain in year one (2017), and Biden oversaw back-to-back annual gains exceeding 20% in 2024 and 2023. Pre-inauguration analyst forecasts had predicted approximately 12% S&P 500 gains for 2025, meaning actual performance only marginally exceeded expectations — contradicting any notion of “historic” outperformance. ⁶

International markets dramatically outperformed U.S. markets in 2025. The MSCI All Country World ex-USA gained 29.2%, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index returned 33.6% (best since 2017), and South Korea’s Kospi soared 76%. International equities outperformed U.S. stocks by roughly 17 percentage points. The U.S. dollar fell 9.4%, its worst year since 2017. This pattern suggests the primary drivers of equity gains in 2025 — AI investment enthusiasm, rate cut expectations, earnings growth — were global phenomena, not products of U.S. presidential policy. ⁷

Strong Inferences

The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, not presidential action, was the primary domestic policy driver of equity performance. The Fed cut rates by 100 basis points in late 2024 (September, November, December) and an additional 75 basis points across three cuts in 2025, bringing the target range to 3.50-3.75%. Lower interest rates support equity valuations by reducing discount rates on future earnings, lowering corporate borrowing costs, and making stocks relatively more attractive than bonds. This is the same Fed whose rate hikes under Biden are credited with taming inflation (Item #74). ⁸

Stock market gains disproportionately benefit the wealthy, making this an unusual metric for “working Americans.” The top 10% of U.S. households own approximately 93% of stock market wealth. The top 1% alone own 54% of publicly traded equities, up from 40% in 2002. Only 28% of households earning under $50,000 own any stock. A “historic stock-market rebound” under a section titled “Rebuilding an Economy for Working Americans” implies broad-based benefit, but the distributional reality means that the vast majority of these gains accrued to the already wealthy. ⁹

Market concentration in a handful of tech giants inflates headline index performance beyond what the typical stock experienced. The “Magnificent Seven” (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Tesla, Nvidia) account for 33% of S&P 500 market capitalization. Excluding these seven stocks, S&P 500 returns would have been approximately 8%, not 16%. The median S&P 500 stock remained 19% below its all-time high even as the index itself was at record levels. AI-driven enthusiasm for a small number of mega-cap tech companies, not broad-based economic strength, drove the headline numbers. ¹⁰

What the Evidence Shows

The factual core of this claim is accurate: all three major indices did hit multiple new record highs in 2025, and double-digit annual gains are genuinely positive. But the claim is constructed to give a profoundly misleading impression, starting with the word “rebound.” There was no decline to rebound from when Trump took office. The S&P 500 was at an all-time high on inauguration day, reflecting two consecutive years of 24-25% gains under Biden. The only “rebound” that occurred in 2025 was recovery from the administration’s own self-inflicted tariff crash in April — a crash that wiped $5 trillion from market value in two days, drove the Nasdaq into bear territory, and required a policy reversal (the 90-day tariff pause on April 9) to arrest the bleeding. Claiming credit for the recovery from a crash you caused is like an arsonist taking credit for the fire department’s work.

The word “historic” does even heavier lifting. The S&P 500’s 38 record closes were fewer than 2024’s 57, 2021’s 70, or 2017’s 62 (Trump’s own first year). The 13.3% inauguration-to-inauguration gain was the weakest first-year presidential market performance since 2005, and substantially below analyst forecasts that had already priced in continuity. Meanwhile, international markets outperformed the U.S. by nearly double — the MSCI ex-USA gained 29% — suggesting the real story of 2025 was a global AI-driven rally in which the U.S. was a laggard, not a leader. If the market performance were truly driven by presidential policy rather than global trends and Fed rate cuts, one would expect U.S. outperformance, not underperformance.

This claim also appears under “Rebuilding an Economy for Working Americans,” but stock market gains are among the most unequally distributed economic benefits in America. The top 10% own 93% of stock market wealth. The bottom half owns approximately 1%. For a median-income household, record stock indices are an abstraction; for the top 1%, who own 54% of equities, they are a direct wealth transfer. Presenting stock market performance as evidence of an economy rebuilt for working people is a category error — or a deliberate misdirection.

The Bottom Line

The record highs are real. The indices did all hit new records in 2025, and double-digit annual returns three years running is a notable streak. This much deserves acknowledgment.

But “historic stock-market rebound” is misleading on every meaningful word. There was no rebound — markets were at all-time highs at inauguration. The only decline and recovery during 2025 was self-inflicted by the administration’s tariff shock. The performance was not historic — it was the weakest presidential first year since 2005, with fewer record closes than 2024, 2021, or Trump’s own first year. And the “delivered” framing ignores the actual drivers: Federal Reserve rate cuts, global AI enthusiasm, and corporate earnings momentum that predated this administration. International markets nearly doubled U.S. returns, suggesting American presidential policy was if anything a headwind, not a tailwind. Placing this claim under “working Americans” compounds the distortion: the top 10% captured 93% of these gains. The stock market had a good year in 2025. It was not historic, it was not a rebound, and the administration did not deliver it.

Sources

Footnotes

1. FRED S&P 500 daily index (SP500); scantips.com annual record high counts. S&P 500 set 38 new closing highs in 2025 vs. 57 in 2024 and 70 in 2021. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500; https://www.scantips.com/s&pcnthighs.html ↩

2. FRED S&P 500, DJIA, Nasdaq Composite series. S&P 500 +16.4% price / ~17.9% total return; DJIA +13%; Nasdaq +20.4%. Third consecutive year of double-digit gains. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500; https://abcnews.com/Business/stock-market-ends-2025-double-digit-gains/story?id=128812306 ↩

3. FRED SP500 series. S&P 500 closed at 5,996.66 on January 17, 2025 (last trading day before inauguration), already an all-time high. New high of 6,144.15 on February 19, 2025. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500 ↩

4. NBC News, CBS News, multiple sources. Liberation Day (April 2, 2025): sweeping tariffs announced. S&P 500 fell ~19% from Feb 19 peak to April 8 trough (~4,983). $5+ trillion wiped out in two days. https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/sp-500-hits-new-all-time-high-what-to-know-rcna215221 ↩

5. CBS News: “damage recovery rather than organic growth — a correction from an externally-triggered crash caused by tariff policy uncertainty.” S&P 500 +23% from April 8 low to new high on June 27. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/s-p-500-market-rebound-near-record-high/ ↩

6. FactCheck.org: S&P 500 gained 13.3% inauguration-to-inauguration, weakest since Bush’s second term (2005). Trump’s first term saw 24.1% in year one. Pre-inauguration forecasts predicted ~12% gains. https://www.factcheck.org/2026/02/a-pre-sotu-guide-to-trumps-economic-claims/ ↩

7. MSCI Research, CNN Business. MSCI ACWI ex-USA +29.2%; MSCI EM +33.6%; South Korea Kospi +76%. US dollar index fell 9.4%. https://www.msci.com/research-and-insights/blog-post/five-takeaways-for-country-investing-from-2025-historic-equity-shift; https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/04/investing/global-stock-market-year-international ↩

8. Federal Reserve FOMC rate decisions. 2024: -100bp (Sep -50, Nov -25, Dec -25). 2025: -75bp (three 25bp cuts). Target range 3.50-3.75% by December 2025. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm ↩

9. Federal Reserve Distributional Financial Accounts (DFA). Top 10% own ~93% of stock wealth. Top 1% own 54% of equities, up from 40% in 2002. Gallup: only 28% of households under $50K own stock. https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/dataviz/dfa/distribute/chart/; https://inequality.org/article/stock-ownership-concentration/ ↩

10. Capital Group, Barclays Private Bank analysis. Magnificent 7 = 33% of S&P 500 market cap. Ex-Mag 7 returns ~8%. Median S&P 500 stock 19% below its all-time high while index at record. https://www.capitalgroup.com/institutional/insights/articles/fresh-breadth-market-concentration-3-charts.html ↩