The Claim

Reduced wholesale egg prices by 89% following the Trump Administration’s intervention, supply stabilization, and regulatory relief.

The Claim, Unpacked

What is literally being asserted?

Three things: (1) wholesale egg prices declined by 89% at some point during Trump’s first year, (2) this decline followed specific interventions by the Trump administration, and (3) those interventions included “supply stabilization” and “regulatory relief.” The word “reduced” implies active causation — the administration did something that caused prices to fall.

What is being implied but not asserted?

That egg prices were a problem, the Trump administration identified the problem, took decisive action, and those actions caused a near-total collapse in wholesale prices. The framing suggests a policy triumph — government intervention successfully taming a runaway market. The word “regulatory relief” implies that regulations were a significant cause of high egg prices and that removing them was part of the solution.

What is conspicuously absent?

That wholesale egg prices spiked to all-time records because of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI/H5N1), which had been killing commercial poultry flocks since 2022 — well before Trump took office. That the HPAI crisis drove the depopulation of over 166 million birds, including roughly 50 million egg-laying hens between October 2024 and March 2025 alone. That wholesale egg prices are among the most volatile commodity prices in the economy, routinely swinging 300-400% in a year based on disease cycles, seasonal demand, and flock repopulation. That the previous HPAI-driven spike in 2022 also resolved itself through natural flock recovery without any presidential intervention. That the USDA’s “five-pronged strategy” was announced on February 26, 2025 — the same month wholesale prices were hitting all-time records — and the first meaningful biosecurity assessments took months to implement. That the 89% figure is a cherry-picked peak-to-trough measurement using the most extreme data points in a highly volatile market. That retail egg prices — what consumers actually pay — declined only about 60% from peak, not 89%. That the Biden administration had already spent over $1.1 billion in HPAI indemnity payments and established the biosecurity audit framework the Trump administration built upon.

Evidence Assessment

Established Facts

Wholesale egg prices did decline approximately 89-90% from their February 2025 peak to their January 2026 trough. The BLS Producer Price Index for Chicken Eggs (WPU0171, base 1982=100) peaked at 1,302.3 in February 2025 and fell to 86.0 in January 2026 — a 93.4% decline. The PPI for Large Eggs (WPU01710703) peaked at 1,156.5 in February 2025 and fell to 115.3 in January 2026 — a 90.0% decline. USDA AMS wholesale price data shows Midwest large eggs peaked at approximately $8.20/dozen in February 2025 and fell to approximately $0.89/dozen by late December 2025, with a further trough near $0.33/dozen on January 13, 2026. The 89% figure is consistent with the trajectory from the February 2025 peak ($8.20) to a late-year trough around $0.90 (89% decline). The math on the numerical claim is approximately correct. ¹

The egg price spike was driven by Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI/H5N1), not by policy failure. Since 2022, HPAI has devastated commercial poultry flocks in the United States, with over 169 million birds affected across all 50 states. In 2024 alone, 55 million chickens were killed. In just January-February 2025, 30 million more were lost. The USDA confirmed 42 outbreaks in layer flocks across 10 states in early 2025, resulting in the depopulation of 31.3 million egg-laying hens. The disease particularly targets layers — 75% of losses were egg-laying hens, vs. 9% meat birds — explaining why egg prices were disproportionately affected compared to other poultry products. ²

The price decline followed the natural HPAI disease cycle and seasonal demand patterns, not government intervention. The St. Louis Federal Reserve’s economic education analysis explains that egg prices are determined by supply-demand dynamics in the wholesale Egg Clearinghouse market. Laying hens require 18-22 weeks to mature, so flock recovery after an HPAI wave follows a biological timeline, not a policy timeline. The 2022-23 HPAI spike followed the same pattern: prices rose sharply (PPI peaked at 782.2 in December 2022), then crashed as flocks recovered (fell to 128.0 by May 2023 — an 83.6% decline). No presidential intervention was credited for that recovery. The USDA ERS attributes the 2025 price decline to “seasonal egg demand decline” and flock recovery, not policy actions. ³

The Trump administration’s “five-pronged strategy” was announced on February 26, 2025 — during the price peak, not before it. Secretary Rollins’ $1 billion plan included: $500 million for biosecurity, $400 million for producer indemnity, $100 million for vaccine research, egg import agreements, and “regulatory relief.” However, this was announced five weeks after inauguration, when wholesale prices were already at or near their all-time high ($8.20/dozen). Wholesale prices began declining in early March due to the natural waning of HPAI detections and seasonal demand decline. From January 20 to June 26, 2025, USDA completed 948 biosecurity assessments — meaningful work, but the timeline shows the price decline was well underway before most assessments were completed. ⁴

The Biden administration had already built the HPAI response infrastructure the Trump administration continued. APHIS had made indemnity payments to over 1,200 producers totaling nearly $1.1 billion before Trump took office. In December 2024, APHIS published an interim final rule requiring biosecurity audits before producers could restock and receive future indemnity. The Trump administration’s $1 billion plan largely continued and expanded this existing framework. The fundamental tools — depopulation, indemnity, and biosecurity assessment — were not new. ⁵

Retail egg prices — what consumers actually pay — declined roughly 60%, not 89%. BLS average price data shows retail eggs peaked at $6.227/dozen in March 2025 and fell to $2.500/dozen by February 2026, a 59.8% decline. The January 2026 retail price ($2.577) was approximately the same as the January 2024 price ($2.522), meaning retail egg prices returned to roughly where they were before the second HPAI wave — not to historically low levels. The USDA ERS notes that “retail price movements tend to lag directional changes made by wholesale prices” and that “additional factors such as pricing strategies and contracts can mute the impact of short-term fluctuations.” ⁶

Strong Inferences

The 89% figure is a textbook cherry-pick using the most extreme peak-to-trough measurement in a highly volatile market. Wholesale egg prices are among the most volatile commodity prices in the economy. The PPI for chicken eggs swung from 128.0 (May 2023) to 1,302.3 (February 2025) — a 918% increase — then back to 86.0 (January 2026) — a 93% decline. By February 2026, the PPI had already rebounded to 176.6, demonstrating that the January trough was a transient low. Measuring from the absolute peak to the absolute trough and presenting it as an “achievement” is like measuring the depth of a valley by standing on the mountain it sits between. The February 2025 peak was itself a crisis — caused by avian flu, not policy — so claiming credit for the return to normal from that crisis is claiming credit for the resolution of a natural disaster. ⁷

The “regulatory relief” component was minimal and largely unrelated to the price decline. The only specific regulatory action identifiable in the Federal Register is the DOJ lawsuit against California’s Proposition 12 cage-free requirements, filed in July 2025 — five months after prices had already crashed from their peak. No executive orders related to avian influenza or egg prices appear in the Federal Register. The USDA’s “regulatory relief” language primarily refers to ongoing discussions with FDA about supply expansion and the Proposition 12 challenge. California’s egg prices remained higher than national averages throughout this period, but the national wholesale price decline occurred in states entirely unaffected by Proposition 12. ⁸

The administration may have helped at the margins through biosecurity improvements, but the primary driver of the price decline was the natural HPAI cycle. The 948 biosecurity assessments completed by June 2025, and the epidemiologist deployment to farms, are genuine contributions to disease management. An AFBF economist credited these measures with “dramatically improved the ability to keep supplies in the pipeline.” However, the exact same price recovery pattern occurred after the 2022 outbreak without any of these programs. The biological fact that hens take 18-22 weeks to mature and begin laying creates a predictable recovery timeline after each HPAI wave — a timeline governed by biology, not policy. ⁹

What the Evidence Shows

The 89% number is real. Wholesale egg prices did indeed collapse from their all-time peak of approximately $8.20/dozen in February 2025 to roughly $0.90/dozen by late 2025 — and even lower (to $0.33/dozen) by mid-January 2026. But presenting this as an achievement of the Trump administration requires ignoring virtually every relevant piece of context.

The egg price spike was caused by Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza, a viral disease that had been killing American poultry since 2022. The HPAI waves of late 2024 and early 2025 were particularly devastating, forcing the depopulation of over 50 million egg-laying hens. This reduced the national egg supply while demand remained relatively constant (eggs are an inelastic good), causing wholesale prices to spike to unprecedented levels. This is not a policy failure any president caused, and the resolution is not a policy achievement any president created.

The price recovery followed the same biological pattern seen after the 2022 HPAI spike: birds die, flocks are restocked, 18-22 weeks later new hens start laying, supply recovers, prices crash. The 2022 recovery saw wholesale PPI fall 83.6% from peak to trough without any presidential intervention being credited. The 2025 recovery followed the same trajectory. The administration’s five-pronged strategy was announced on February 26, 2025 — when prices were at their peak — and meaningful implementation took months. The wholesale price crash began in March 2025, driven by seasonal demand decline and the natural waning of HPAI detections, before the biosecurity assessment program could have meaningfully affected supply.

The claim also carefully specifies “wholesale” prices — a market consumers never directly interact with. Retail egg prices, what families actually pay at the store, declined about 60% from peak, not 89%. And by January 2026, retail prices had merely returned to approximately their January 2024 level — before the worst of the HPAI crisis. The wholesale market’s extreme volatility produced the more impressive-sounding 89% number.

The Bottom Line

The 89% wholesale egg price decline is a real number. Credit where it is due: the USDA’s biosecurity assessment program and the $1 billion investment plan represent genuine engagement with the avian flu crisis. The deployment of epidemiologists and cost-sharing for biosecurity improvements were constructive actions that may have contributed to preventing additional HPAI outbreaks.

But claiming to have “reduced” wholesale egg prices by 89% through “intervention” and “regulatory relief” fundamentally misrepresents what happened. Egg prices spiked because a deadly virus killed tens of millions of chickens. Egg prices fell because the surviving and replacement flocks began producing eggs again — the same thing that happened after the 2022 spike, and the same thing that would have happened with or without a presidential plan. The word “reduced” implies active causation where the evidence shows a natural recovery from a disease-driven crisis. It is the equivalent of claiming credit for the sun rising because you set an alarm clock.

Footnotes

1. BLS Producer Price Index for Chicken Eggs (WPU0171) via FRED, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPU0171; BLS PPI for Large Eggs (WPU01710703) via FRED, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPU01710703; USDA ERS Chart of Note on wholesale egg prices, https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/charts-of-note/chart-detail?chartId=112677 ↩

2. St. Louis Fed, “The Market for Eggs: How Prices Are Hatched,” May 2025, https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/page-one-economics/2025/may/market-for-eggs-how-prices-are-hatched; CDC H5N1 situation summary (169 million birds affected as of May 2025); High Plains Journal, “Egg prices show some sign of easing,” May 16, 2025, https://hpj.com/2025/05/16/egg-prices-show-some-sign-of-easing/ ↩

3. St. Louis Fed, “The Market for Eggs: How Prices Are Hatched,” May 2025; USDA ERS Chart of Note, https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/charts-of-note/chart-detail?chartId=112677; BLS PPI data (WPU0171) showing 2022-23 spike and recovery pattern ↩

4. White House, “ICYMI: Secretary Brooke Rollins Outlines Plan to Lower Egg Prices,” February 26, 2025, https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2025/02/icymi-secretary-brooke-rollins-outlines-plan-to-lower-egg-prices/; USDA press release, “USDA Invests Up To $1 Billion to Combat Avian Flu and Reduce Egg Prices,” February 26, 2025, https://www.usda.gov/about-usda/news/press-releases/2025/02/26/usda-invests-1-billion-combat-avian-flu-and-reduce-egg-prices ↩

5. APHIS indemnity program updates, https://www.aphis.usda.gov/news/agency-announcements/aphis-announces-updates-indemnity-program-highly-pathogenic-avian; Federal Register search for avian influenza documents post-January 20, 2025; CRS report on HPAI outbreak (R48518), https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48518 ↩

6. BLS Average Price data (APU0000708111) via FRED, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111; USDA ERS Chart of Note on wholesale-retail price relationship, https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/charts-of-note/chart-detail?chartId=112677 ↩

7. BLS PPI data (WPU0171) via FRED showing 2022-23 and 2024-25 boom-bust cycles; USDA ERS Food Price Outlook, https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/summary-findings ↩

8. Federal Register API search for presidential documents on avian influenza and egg prices (zero results); USDA Secretary Rollins’ statement on Proposition 12 lawsuit, July 2025, https://www.usda.gov/about-usda/news/press-releases/2025/07/10/secretary-rollins-issues-statement-following-trump-administration-lawsuit-against-california ↩

9. American Farm Bureau Federation, “Egg Prices Continue Setting Records,” https://www.fb.org/market-intel/egg-prices-continue-setting-records; Fox Business, “Egg prices drop 42% year-over-year as avian flu outbreak recovery continues,” https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/egg-prices-plunge-avian-flu-impact-eases-risks-remain ↩