The Claim

Reduced rent growth to its slowest pace since 2021.

The Claim, Unpacked

What is literally being asserted?

That rent growth — the rate at which rents are increasing — has decelerated to a pace not seen since 2021. The verb “reduced” claims the administration caused this outcome.

What is being implied but not asserted?

That the administration took action to bring rent growth down. “Reduced” is an active verb — it implies deliberate policy intervention that produced the slowdown. A reader is invited to believe that something the president did in 2025 made rents grow more slowly. The choice of 2021 as the benchmark implies the current pace is approaching pandemic-era levels, suggesting dramatic relief for renters.

What is conspicuously absent?

Any identification of what the administration actually did to affect rents. Also absent: the multifamily construction boom that started in 2021-2022 and is now delivering a record wave of new apartments, the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking cycle that suppressed housing demand and is now feeding through to lower rent inflation, and the fact that rent deceleration has been underway continuously since early 2023 — nearly two years before this administration took office. The claim also does not specify which rent measure it is referencing, and the answer matters significantly: CPI rent of primary residence, the CPI shelter index, and private asking rent indices (Apartment List, Zillow) all tell somewhat different stories.

Evidence Assessment

Established Facts

CPI rent of primary residence grew 2.9% year-over-year in December 2025, down from a peak of 8.8% in February-March 2023. The BLS series CUSR0000SEHA shows a monotonic deceleration from 8.8% in early 2023 to 2.9% in December 2025. By February 2026, the reading was 2.7%. The December 2025 rate of 2.9% matches September 2021 exactly (also 2.9%). Whether this qualifies as “slowest since 2021” depends on interpretation: it is the slowest since September 2021, which is technically “since 2021” — but it was also the same speed at a point within 2021. Early 2021 saw much slower growth (2.0% in January-February 2021). ¹

The CPI shelter index (which includes both rent and owners’ equivalent rent) grew 3.0% year-over-year in November 2025, the lowest reading since June 2021 (2.6%). The broader shelter index peaked at 8.2% in March 2023 and decelerated steadily to 3.0% in November 2025 before ticking up slightly to 3.2% in December 2025. February 2026 returned to 3.0%. However, first-half 2021 shelter inflation ranged from 1.4% to 2.8% — all below the current reading. The claim of “slowest since 2021” is technically defensible only if one means “since the second half of 2021” or “since late 2021,” not since the start of 2021. ²

Private asking rent indices show actual year-over-year rent declines — well below any 2021 reading. The Apartment List National Rent Report for February 2026 showed year-over-year rent growth of -1.5%, with the national median rent at $1,357. Apartment List described this as “the lowest year-over-year rent growth recorded since the summer of 2020, when the market was rocked by the early months of the pandemic.” National rents have fallen 5.9% from their 2022 peak. By this measure, rent growth is not merely at its slowest pace since 2021 — it is the slowest since 2020. ³

The rent deceleration has been underway since early 2023, nearly two years before this administration took office. CPI rent of primary residence peaked at 8.8% in February-March 2023 and declined in every subsequent month. The rate fell from 8.8% (March 2023) to 6.5% (December 2023) to 4.3% (December 2024) to 2.9% (December 2025). The deceleration was driven by two forces that predate the current administration: (1) the multifamily construction boom that began with record starts in 2021-2022, and (2) the demand-suppressing effects of the Federal Reserve’s 2022-2023 rate-hiking cycle. ⁴

Multifamily housing completions reached elevated levels throughout 2025, delivering a wave of new supply. Census Bureau data (FRED series COMPU5MUSA) shows multifamily completions (5+ unit buildings) running at 389,000-532,000 SAAR in the September 2025 through January 2026 period. NAHB reported seven consecutive quarters of completions exceeding 90,000 units. The three-month absorption rate fell below 50% for four straight quarters, meaning new apartments were being delivered faster than they could be leased. Median asking rent for newly completed apartments declined from $1,941 in Q4 2024 to $1,860 in Q2 2025. ⁵

Rental vacancy rates rose throughout 2025. The Census Bureau’s Housing Vacancies and Homeownership Survey showed the rental vacancy rate rising from 6.9% in Q4 2024 to 7.2% in Q4 2025. The Apartment List vacancy index reported 7.4% in February 2026 — the highest level since at least 2017 in their dataset. Rising vacancies reflect the supply glut from elevated multifamily completions, giving renters more options and landlords less pricing power. ⁶

Strong Inferences

The administration took no identifiable action in 2025 that would have affected rent growth. The administration’s housing-related executive orders — “Stopping Wall Street from Competing with Main Street Homebuyers” (January 20, 2026), “Removing Regulatory Barriers to Affordable Home Construction” and “Promoting Access to Mortgage Credit” (both March 13, 2026) — were all issued after the claim was published and, even if impactful, would take years to affect the housing supply pipeline and rental market. No executive order, regulation, or policy action during the January-December 2025 period has been identified that would influence national rent growth rates. The rent deceleration was driven entirely by supply-side dynamics (construction boom) and demand-side dynamics (high interest rates suppressing mobility) that originated years before. ⁷

The multifamily construction boom that is driving rent deceleration originated in 2021-2022, well before this administration. Multifamily housing starts surged in 2021-2022 in response to the pandemic-era rent boom and record-low interest rates. These projects, which take 18-24 months to complete, began reaching the market in 2023-2024 and peaked in 2025. The construction pipeline was set by decisions made under the Biden administration and by the Federal Reserve’s earlier low-rate environment. The current supply wave would have arrived regardless of who held the presidency. ⁸

CPI rent measures lag actual market rents by 12-18 months due to methodological differences. The CPI measures all rents (including existing leases that roll over with modest increases), not just asking rents for new leases. Private indices like Apartment List track new lease prices and reflect market conditions in near-real-time. The deceleration showing up in December 2025 CPI data reflects market conditions from roughly mid-2024 — before the current administration. The further deceleration visible in asking rent indices (now outright negative) will likely continue pulling CPI rent lower through 2026, regardless of policy. ⁹

What the Evidence Shows

The factual core of the claim is approximately correct, though it depends on which measure one uses and how precisely one interprets “since 2021.” CPI rent of primary residence was 2.9% year-over-year in December 2025 — matching September 2021 exactly, and the slowest rate since that month. By February 2026, it was 2.7%, matching August 2021. The broader CPI shelter index tells a similar story. Private asking rent indices, which are more responsive to current market conditions, show outright rent declines — the weakest readings since the pandemic summer of 2020.

But the verb “reduced” is doing heavy lifting. The rent deceleration is a multi-year trend that began in early 2023, nearly two full years before this administration took office. CPI rent fell from 8.8% to 4.3% — a 4.5 percentage point decline — between March 2023 and December 2024, entirely under the Biden administration. It then fell another 1.4 percentage points (from 4.3% to 2.9%) during 2025. The trend’s trajectory did not change when administrations did. The forces driving rent deceleration are structural and well-documented: a multifamily construction boom that started in 2021-2022 is delivering a record wave of new apartments, pushing vacancy rates to their highest levels since at least 2017 and forcing landlords to compete for tenants. The Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate-hiking cycle in 2022-2023 suppressed housing demand, reducing mobility and putting further downward pressure on rents with a lag.

The administration took no action during 2025 that would plausibly affect national rent growth rates. Its housing-related executive orders were issued in January and March 2026 — after the claim was published — and even if effective, would take years to influence the supply pipeline. This is a textbook case of a president claiming credit for the continuation of a pre-existing trend driven by forces entirely outside executive control.

The Bottom Line

Rent growth has genuinely decelerated to levels not seen since late 2021, and by some private-sector measures, rents are actually declining year-over-year for the first time since the pandemic. This is a real development that benefits renters, and the claim’s factual core is approximately accurate.

Steel-man: Renters are genuinely experiencing relief. The pace of rent increases has slowed dramatically from the painful 8-9% rates of 2022-2023. The administration could argue that its broader approach to deregulation and housing policy — even if not yet fully implemented — has contributed to market confidence. And the January 2026 MBS purchase directive (discussed in item 76) aimed to lower mortgage rates, which indirectly affects rental markets by making homeownership more accessible.

But the word “reduced” claims agency where none exists. The rent deceleration began in early 2023, accelerated throughout 2024, and continued its established trajectory in 2025 — driven by the largest multifamily construction wave in decades and the lagged effects of the Fed’s rate-hiking cycle. No administration policy in 2025 contributed to this outcome. The claim takes a welcome trend that originated years earlier and arrived on schedule regardless of who occupied the White House, and frames it as a presidential achievement.

Sources

Footnotes

1. BLS CPI Rent of Primary Residence, Series CUSR0000SEHA, 12-month percent change data, 2019-2026. https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SEHA?output_view=pct_12mths ↩

2. BLS CPI Shelter, Series CUSR0000SAH1, 12-month percent change data, 2019-2026. https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SAH1?output_view=pct_12mths ↩

3. Apartment List National Rent Report, February 2026. https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/national-rent-data ↩

4. BLS CPI Rent of Primary Residence (footnote 1), deceleration trajectory from March 2023 peak through December 2025. ↩

5. FRED Series COMPU5MUSA (Census Bureau multifamily completions data). https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/COMPU5MUSA; Eye on Housing (NAHB), “Multifamily Absorption Rate Remains Below 50%,” March 3, 2026. https://eyeonhousing.org/2026/03/multifamily-absorption-rate-remains-below-50/ ↩

6. FRED Series RRVRUSQ156N (Census Bureau rental vacancy rate). https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRVRUSQ156N; Apartment List National Rent Report (footnote 3). ↩

7. White House Presidential Actions, housing-related executive orders. https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/?s=housing ↩

8. Eye on Housing (NAHB), “Third Quarter 2025 Multifamily Construction Data,” January 20, 2026. https://eyeonhousing.org/2026/01/third-quarter-2025-multifamily-construction-data/; FRED COMPU5MUSA (footnote 5). ↩

9. Apartment List methodology: same-unit repeat-transaction analysis tracking new lease asking rents. Described in Apartment List Research, “Data & Rent Estimates” methodology page. https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates; Cleveland Fed Rent Inflation Tracker documents the 12-18 month lag between asking rents and CPI rent measures. ↩