365 Days of Claims
Claim #327 of 365
True but Misleading high confidence

The claim is factually accurate, but its framing creates a misleading impression.

coalenergyfederal-landsleasingmarket-disconnect

The Claim

Announced the opening of 13.1 million more acres of federal land for coal leasing, tripling benchmarks set by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and delivering on President Trump’s directive to restore American Energy Dominance.

The Claim, Unpacked

What is literally being asserted?

Three factual propositions: (1) the administration announced making 13.1 million acres of federal land available for coal leasing, (2) this tripled the acreage benchmark set by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and (3) it delivered on a presidential directive to restore “American Energy Dominance.”

What is being implied but not asserted?

That making acreage “available” for coal leasing is equivalent to actual coal development. That there is industry demand for this land. That coal production on these acres will contribute meaningfully to American energy supply. That the obstacle to coal’s competitiveness was insufficient federal land access rather than market fundamentals.

What is conspicuously absent?

The composition of the 13.1 million acres — specifically that roughly 85% is split-estate land where the surface is privately owned, making mining operationally difficult. The near-total absence of industry demand, demonstrated by rejected bids and failed auctions in October 2025. The continued structural decline of U.S. coal production and consumption. The distinction between announcing land availability and actual leasing activity.

Evidence Assessment

Established Facts

The Department of the Interior announced 13.1 million acres of federal mineral estate available for coal leasing on September 29, 2025. Secretary Doug Burgum signed the policy during an event focused on “Beautiful Clean Coal.” The formal Federal Register notice was published October 2, 2025, identifying lands across Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, Colorado, Utah, and New Mexico. 1

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Section 50203, required the Secretary of the Interior to make at least 4 million additional acres available for coal leasing within 90 days of enactment (July 4, 2025). The administration’s 13.1 million acres tripled this statutory minimum, meeting and exceeding the legislative benchmark. 2

Approximately 85% of the 13.1 million acres — roughly 11.1 million acres — is split-estate land where the federal government owns subsurface mineral rights but the surface is privately or state-owned. Most of this split-estate land is in North Dakota and eastern Montana. Mining on split-estate land requires negotiating with multiple private surface owners, making it operationally and legally difficult. Analysts assessed this land as unlikely to be mined except where immediately adjacent to existing operations. 3

U.S. coal production has been in sustained decline for nearly two decades. Production fell from a peak of approximately 1.17 billion short tons in 2008 to 512.5 million short tons in 2024 — a decline of more than 56%. The EIA forecasts further drops to 483 million short tons in 2025 and 467 million short tons in 2026. The number of producing coal mines fell from 560 to 524 in 2024 alone. 4

Initial federal coal lease sales following the announcement met with minimal industry interest. In October 2025, the BLM rejected the sole bid for 167 million tons of coal near Montana’s Spring Creek Mine — Navajo Transitional Energy Company offered $186,000, or less than one-tenth of a penny per ton, well below fair market value. A separate coal sale of the Little Eccles Tract in Utah also saw its sole bid rejected. A planned sale of 441 million tons at Wyoming’s West Antelope Mine was postponed after the single bid was returned before the auction occurred. Three proposed western coal sales failed in a single month. 5

Coal’s share of U.S. electricity generation continues to decline structurally. Coal generated 16% of U.S. electricity in 2024, temporarily rising to 17% in 2025 due to high electricity demand, but is forecast to fall to 15% in 2026. Coal consumption peaked in 2007 and had declined 64% by 2024. The U.S. is on track to close half its coal-fired generating capacity by 2026, with 17 GW of retirements announced for 2025 alone. 6

The OBBBA also cut federal coal royalty rates from 12.5% to 7% for surface mines (and from 8% to 7% for underground mines) through September 30, 2034. This royalty reduction — a subsidy to coal producers at taxpayer expense — accompanied the acreage expansion. Taxpayers for Common Sense estimated that historical royalty rate reductions cost the federal treasury approximately $37 million annually. 7

Strong Inferences

The 13.1 million acre figure was designed to generate a large headline number rather than reflect realistic development potential. The administration could have met the statutory requirement with 4 million acres. By tripling the benchmark to include 11 million acres of difficult-to-mine split-estate land, the announcement optimized for political messaging. The subsequent failure of multiple lease auctions suggests the acreage figure bore little relationship to market reality. 8

The coordinated September 29, 2025 announcement — combining DOI’s 13.1 million acres, DOE’s $625 million in coal plant funding, and EPA regulatory relief — represented a comprehensive political commitment to coal that ran counter to market fundamentals. The DOE funding included $350 million for coal plant recommissioning and retrofit, $175 million for rural coal capacity, and $100 million for coal plant operational support. These measures addressed the demand side that the leasing announcement alone could not fix. 9

Wyoming’s 2025 coal production — projected to be its second-worst year since peak production in 2008 — demonstrates that supply-side measures like expanded leasing cannot reverse demand-driven decline. The Powder River Basin, the nation’s largest coal-producing region, saw production fall from 446.5 million tons at its 2008 peak to approximately 205 million tons in 2024. This decline continued despite the administration’s aggressive leasing posture. 10

What the Evidence Shows

The factual core of this claim is accurate: the administration did announce 13.1 million acres of federal mineral estate for coal leasing, and this did triple the One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s statutory minimum of 4 million acres. The announcement was real, the Federal Register notice was published, and the land was formally made available.

But the claim conflates announcement with outcome in a way that obscures what actually happened. Making land “available” for coal leasing is not the same as coal companies wanting to lease it, applying for leases, or mining it. The market has given its answer with striking clarity: within weeks of the announcement, three separate western coal lease sales failed. The Montana bid came in at less than a penny per ton. The Wyoming sale was postponed. The Utah bid was rejected. No new coal mines are under construction on any of the newly available acreage.

The reason is structural. U.S. coal demand is declining because natural gas and renewables are cheaper sources of electricity, not because of insufficient access to federal mineral rights. The BLM currently administers just 273 federal coal leases on 404,847 acres across 11 states. Opening 13.1 million additional acres — a 32-fold increase in available acreage — in an industry where existing operations are contracting addresses a problem that does not exist. It is like building 32 times more parking lots in a city where car ownership is falling.

Moreover, the composition of the 13.1 million acres undermines the headline figure. With approximately 85% consisting of split-estate land where private surface owners control the surface, any new mining would require negotiations with individual landowners, additional environmental review, and significant capital expenditure to develop from scratch — at a time when even established operations cannot attract bids at fair market value.

The Bottom Line

The announcement happened, and it did triple the statutory benchmark. As a statement of political intent, it is factually accurate. But the claim presents a government announcement as if it were an economic achievement, when the market has demonstrably rejected the offering. The administration opened 13.1 million acres for coal leasing in an industry where bidders at recent auctions offered less than a penny per ton and were still turned away for bidding too low. Making land available that no one wants to lease is not “energy dominance” — it is a policy gesture directed at a market that has moved on. The verdict is true but misleading: the action occurred, but its framing as a meaningful energy accomplishment is contradicted by every available market signal.

Footnotes

  1. Department of the Interior press release, “Interior Unleashes American Coal Power in Bold Move to Advance Trump Administration Priorities,” September 29, 2025. https://www.doi.gov/pressreleases/interior-unleashes-american-coal-power-bold-move-advance-trump-administration; Federal Register notice implementing Section 50203 of the OBBBA, published October 2, 2025. https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/10/02/2025-19237/implementing-section-50203-of-the-one-big-beautiful-bill-act ↩

  2. One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R. 1), Section 50203, enacted July 4, 2025. Required minimum 4,000,000 additional acres within 90 days. https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/10/02/2025-19237/implementing-section-50203-of-the-one-big-beautiful-bill-act; Harvard EELP tracker. https://eelp.law.harvard.edu/tracker/blm-makes-13-1-million-acres-available-for-coal-leasing/ ↩

  3. Bloomberg Law, “Trump Coal Plan Includes Private Land Unlikely to be Mined,” October 2025. https://news.bloomberglaw.com/business-and-practice/trump-coal-lease-plan-includes-private-land-unlikely-to-be-mined ↩

  4. EIA, “U.S. production of all types of coal has declined over the past two decades,” 2025. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=64924; EIA Annual Coal Report 2024. https://www.eia.gov/coal/annual/; EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/elec_coal_renew.php ↩

  5. Montana Free Press, “Feds reject bid to buy 167 million tons of coal in Montana for less than a penny per ton,” October 14, 2025. https://montanafreepress.org/2025/10/14/feds-reject-bid-to-buy-167-million-tons-of-coal-in-montana-for-less-than-a-penny-per-ton/; NOTUS, “Trump Has Opened Public Land to Coal Mining. Not Many Are Interested.” https://www.notus.org/energy/trump-public-land-coal-mining-no-bids; AP/Washington Post, “US rejects bid to lease coal from public lands in Utah as sales in western states fall flat,” October 16, 2025. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/10/16/trump-coal-lease-sales-rejected/4552a09c-aabb-11f0-a2bc-82cf6840599d_story.html ↩

  6. EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2026. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/elec_coal_renew.php; EIA, “Planned retirements of U.S. coal-fired electric-generating capacity to increase in 2025.” https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=64604; IEEFA, “U.S. on track to close half of coal capacity by 2026.” https://ieefa.org/resources/us-track-close-half-coal-capacity-2026 ↩

  7. Federal Register, “Revision to Regulations Regarding Coal Management Provisions and Limitations; Fees, Rentals, and Royalties,” August 1, 2025. https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/08/01/2025-14623/revision-to-regulations-regarding-coal-management-provisions-and-limitations-fees-rentals-and; Taxpayers for Common Sense, “Reconciliation Boons for Outdated, Uneconomic Coal Leasing is a Costly Mistake.” https://www.taxpayer.net/energy-natural-resources/reconciliation-boons-for-outdated-uneconomic-coal-leasing-is-a-costly-mistake/ ↩

  8. Bloomberg Law (split-estate analysis); Harvard EELP tracker; failed lease sales in Montana, Utah, and Wyoming (see notes 3, 5 above). ↩

  9. DOE, “Energy Department Announces $625 Million Investment to Reinvigorate and Expand America’s Coal Industry,” September 29, 2025. https://www.energy.gov/articles/energy-department-announces-625-million-investment-reinvigorate-and-expand-americas-coal ↩

  10. Wyoming Public Media, “2025 projected to be Wyoming’s second worst coal production year,” December 27, 2025. https://www.wyomingpublicmedia.org/natural-resources-energy/2025-12-27/2025-is-projected-to-be-wyomings-second-worst-coal-production-year; EIA coal production data. ↩