The Claim

Brought U.S. exports to their second-highest value on record.

The Claim, Unpacked

What is literally being asserted?

Two things: (1) U.S. exports reached their second-highest value ever recorded, and (2) the administration “brought” them there — implying causation. The word “brought” does significant work, converting what might be a neutral observation about trade data into a claim of deliberate policy achievement.

What is being implied but not asserted?

That the administration’s trade policies — primarily its tariff regime — successfully expanded American exports. That “second-highest” is a notable achievement rather than a statistical inevitability in a growing economy. That this result demonstrates the effectiveness of the “reciprocal trade” framework launched on Liberation Day (see Item #105). That American workers and industry specifically benefited.

What is conspicuously absent?

Any acknowledgment that U.S. nominal exports have set new records in nearly every year outside of recessions, as a mechanical consequence of GDP growth and inflation. Any mention that the full-year 2025 result — released February 19, 2026 — showed exports at $3,432.3 billion, actually the HIGHEST on record, not second-highest. The “second-highest” framing appears to have been based on partial-year data available in late 2025. Any discussion of inflation: nominal export growth was 6.2% in 2025, but real (inflation-adjusted) growth was only 1.6% — the difference is just prices rising, not more goods and services being sold abroad. Any mention that retaliatory tariffs from China, Canada, and the EU specifically targeted U.S. exports, restricting access for $223 billion of American goods (see Item #105). Any mention that U.S. soybean exports to China collapsed 53% in 2025 due to retaliatory tariffs (see Item #94). Any acknowledgment that imports also set a record ($4,333.8 billion), meaning the goods trade deficit hit an all-time high of $1.24 trillion. Any discussion of the fact that the administration’s tariff policies were struck down by the Supreme Court in February 2026 as exceeding presidential authority.

Evidence Assessment

Established Facts

U.S. exports of goods and services in 2025 were $3,432.3 billion — the highest value on record, not the second-highest. BEA data released February 19, 2026 showed total exports increased $199.8 billion (6.2%) from 2024. This surpassed the previous record of $3,232.5 billion (revised) in 2024. The claim’s “second-highest” framing was based on partial-year data available when the White House published an earlier version of this claim on December 11, 2025. By the time the “365 Wins” list was published on January 20, 2026, 2025 exports were still on track for — and ultimately achieved — the highest value ever. ¹

Nominal U.S. exports have set new records in nearly every non-recession year for decades. The trajectory: 2022 ($3,009.7B), 2023 ($3,071.8B), 2024 ($3,191.6B, later revised to $3,232.5B), 2025 ($3,432.3B). Before the pandemic: 2018 ($2,553.1B) and 2019 ($2,539.4B) also set or nearly set records. The only significant declines were during the 2008-2009 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic. Exports growing in nominal terms is what happens in a growing economy with rising prices — claiming credit for it is like claiming credit for the passage of time. ²

Real (inflation-adjusted) exports grew only 1.6% in 2025 — far less than the 6.2% nominal figure. BEA data in chained 2017 dollars shows real exports increased from $2,633.6 billion in 2024 to $2,675.4 billion in 2025 — a $41.8 billion gain. While this was technically the highest real export value on record, the growth rate was modest: 1.6% versus 3.5% in 2024 and 2.8% in 2023. Nearly three-quarters of the nominal export growth in 2025 was inflation, not volume. ³

Retaliatory tariffs from major trading partners specifically targeted and harmed U.S. exports. China imposed tariffs reaching 125% on all U.S. goods by April 2025 and suspended U.S. agricultural imports. Canada imposed 25% tariffs on approximately $21 billion of U.S. products, including $5.8 billion in agricultural goods. The EU prepared retaliatory tariffs targeting soybeans, corn, wheat, and rice. The American Farm Bureau Federation documented that the three countries most targeted by U.S. tariffs — Mexico, Canada, and China — were also the top three markets for U.S. agricultural exports. Tax Foundation estimated retaliatory tariffs affected $223 billion of U.S. exports. ⁴

Strong Inferences

U.S. soybean exports to China collapsed 53% in 2025 due to retaliatory tariffs. Soybeans are America’s largest agricultural export by value ($24+ billion in 2024). Chinese retaliatory tariffs created an effective rate of approximately 115% on U.S. soybeans. Exports to China fell to $3 billion — their lowest since 2018’s first trade war. This loss was partially offset by increased exports to other markets, but the net impact on agricultural exporters was significant. ⁵

The administration’s claim that it “brought” exports to this level is contradicted by the export growth pattern. Exports grew 6.2% in 2025, compared to 3.9% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2023. However, the 2025 growth was heavily concentrated in services exports (+7.1%, $82.1 billion increase) — particularly financial services, intellectual property charges, and technology services that have nothing to do with tariff policy. Goods export growth was 5.7% ($117.7 billion), but this includes significant front-loading effects as U.S. exporters rushed shipments ahead of retaliatory tariff implementation. ⁶

The services surplus, not tariff policy, drove the favorable export trajectory. The U.S. services trade surplus grew $27.6 billion to $339.5 billion in 2025 — its highest ever. Services exports ($1,234.9 billion) grew faster than goods exports in percentage terms. The U.S. competitive advantage in services — technology, finance, intellectual property, education, healthcare — is a structural feature of the economy, not a product of trade policy. Tariffs apply to goods, not services. The strongest component of export growth occurred in the segment entirely untouched by the administration’s signature trade initiative. ⁷

The “second-highest” framing reveals cherry-picking of timing. The White House originally made this claim on December 11, 2025, based on partial-year data. At that point, comparing January-October 2025 cumulative exports to full-year records for prior years could have produced a “second-highest” reading, since the year wasn’t complete. But the “365 Wins” list was published January 20, 2026 — by which time November data had been released showing the annualized pace was on track for the highest ever. The claim was stale on the day it was published. ⁸

What the Evidence Shows

The factual core of this claim is both more and less than it appears. U.S. exports in 2025 were not the “second-highest” on record — they were the highest, at $3,432.3 billion. The claim actually understates the nominal result, apparently because it was drafted from partial-year data and never updated. In that narrow sense, the claim is “true” and then some.

But the framing — “brought U.S. exports to” — implies that the administration’s trade policies caused this result. The evidence points in the opposite direction. Nominal exports have risen to record levels in nearly every non-recession year for the past two decades, driven by GDP growth and inflation. The 2025 export growth, when adjusted for inflation, was a modest 1.6% — the slowest rate since the pandemic recovery began. Nearly three-quarters of the nominal increase was just rising prices, not more American goods and services reaching foreign markets.

Meanwhile, the administration’s signature trade initiative — the tariff regime — actively harmed U.S. export performance in key sectors. Retaliatory tariffs from China, Canada, and the EU targeted $223 billion of U.S. exports. Soybean exports to China collapsed 53%. Manufacturing lost approximately 72,000 jobs after April 2025 tariff announcements (see Item #105). The goods deficit hit an all-time record despite tariffs, while the services surplus — entirely unrelated to tariff policy — grew to offset it. The export story of 2025 is one of services strength despite tariff-induced headwinds in goods, not because of trade policy.

The real test of export policy is not whether nominal exports grew — they almost always do — but whether growth accelerated, whether the export mix improved, and whether market access expanded. On the first question, real export growth decelerated. On the second, the strongest growth came in services untouched by tariffs. On the third, retaliatory tariffs actively closed markets. By every meaningful metric, the administration’s trade policies were neutral to negative for U.S. exports.

The Bottom Line

U.S. exports in 2025 actually exceeded the “second-highest” claim — they reached the highest nominal value ever. Credit where due: the number is real, and the claim understates it. But this achievement requires no explanation beyond “the economy grew and prices rose.” Nominal exports have set records in most non-recession years for decades. The 2025 real export growth of 1.6% was the weakest of the post-pandemic recovery. The strongest export growth came in services — technology, finance, intellectual property — sectors untouched by the administration’s tariff policies.

Meanwhile, the one clear, measurable policy impact on exports was negative: retaliatory tariffs from China, Canada, and the EU restricted $223 billion of American goods, collapsed soybean exports to China by 53%, and forced agricultural exporters to seek alternative markets at lower prices. The administration’s signature trade initiative — the “reciprocal” tariff regime — was struck down by the Supreme Court as illegal one month after this claim was published. Claiming that the administration “brought” exports to record levels is like a firefighter claiming credit for saving the foundation of a house — technically the foundation survived, but the fire they set destroyed the upper floors.

Sources

Footnotes

1. BEA, “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, December and Annual 2025,” released February 19, 2026. Total exports: $3,432.3 billion, up $199.8 billion (6.2%) from revised 2024 figure of $3,232.5 billion. Highest on record. White House, “Trump Tariffs Work: Trade Deficit Plummets to Five-Year Low,” December 11, 2025, originally stated “second-highest.” https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/us-international-trade-goods-and-services-december-and-annual-2025; https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2025/12/trump-tariffs-work-trade-deficit-plummets-to-five-year-low/ ↩

2. BEA annual trade releases (2022-2025). 2022: $3,009.7B; 2023: $3,071.8B; 2024: $3,191.6B (later revised to $3,232.5B); 2025: $3,432.3B. Each year set a new nominal record. https://www.bea.gov/news/2023/us-international-trade-goods-and-services-december-and-annual-2022; https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/us-international-trade-goods-and-services-december-and-annual-2024; https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/us-international-trade-goods-and-services-december-and-annual-2025 ↩

3. FRED, Real Exports of Goods and Services (EXPGSC1/EXPGSCA), BEA. Chained 2017 dollars: 2023: $2,541.0B; 2024: $2,633.6B; 2025: $2,675.4B. Real growth 2025: +$41.8B (+1.6%) vs. nominal +$199.8B (+6.2%). https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXPGSC1 ↩

4. American Farm Bureau Federation, “Tallying Up the Latest Retaliatory Tariffs,” March 18, 2025. Canada: 25% on ~$21B of U.S. products including $5.8B agricultural. China: additional tariffs on ~$21B agricultural. Tax Foundation: retaliatory tariffs affected $223B of U.S. exports. https://www.fb.org/market-intel/tallying-up-the-latest-retaliatory-tariffs; https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-trade-war/ ↩

5. See Item #94 analysis and provenance (soybean export data). U.S. soybean exports to China fell to $3 billion in 2025, down 53% from 2024, with effective tariff rate ~115% per American Soybean Association. ↩

6. BEA Annual 2025 data. Goods exports: $2,197.5B (up $117.7B, +5.7%). Services exports: $1,234.9B (up $82.1B, +7.1%). Services growth rate exceeded goods growth rate. https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/us-international-trade-goods-and-services-december-and-annual-2025 ↩

7. BEA Annual 2025 data. Services surplus: $339.5B (up $27.6B from 2024). Goods deficit: $1,240.9B (record high, up $25.5B). The favorable trade balance movement came entirely from services. https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/us-international-trade-goods-and-services-december-and-annual-2025 ↩

8. BEA, “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, October 2025,” released January 8, 2026. Year-to-date through October: exports up $168.6B (+6.3%) from same period 2024. White House December 11, 2025 article used partial-year data; “365 Wins” published January 20, 2026 without updating. https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/us-international-trade-goods-and-services-october-2025 ↩